The “hawkishness” of successive hawkish holds is subject to diminishing returns.
But we see virtually no chance of a September hike. That’s the overwhelming consensus on the FOMC and all will agree, or at least not object, to that decision. In any case, the markets insist. Most on the Committee see the rate hikes as over or nearly done. It will take a very hawkish press conference to convince the markets otherwise. Of course, that’s about guidance, but the most concrete guidance often comes from revisions to the SEP macro projections and the dots; we’ll get to that.