The “hawkishness” of successive hawkish holds is subject to diminishing returns. But we see virtually no chance of a September hike. That’s the overwhelming consensus on the FOMC and all will agree, or at least not object, to that decision. In any case, the markets insist. Most on the Committee see the rate hikes as over […]
Category: FOMC Meeting
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Inflation Monitor: February CPI
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The minutes didn’t contain anything to meaningfully change our views. We said after CPI (and Bullard’s market-moving remarks) that it’s a close call between whether March liftoff will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points, but we think the former is still more likely. There was nothing in the minutes to suggest that they […]