As we wrote last week, despite there being some significant surprises in the March SEP, we still felt comfortable with our call of seven 25-basis-point hikes this year. We adjusted our call only slightly, by adding a hike in 2023 (three instead of two). The median projected funds rate path was higher than we anticipated, […]
Category: Weekly Update
The outlook just keeps getting more uncertain. Powell came to his first monetary policy testimony of the year last week with a plan to deliver a message, which he laid out very clearly early in the Q&A portion of the first day’s hearing. For the immediate period ahead, the FOMC’s intention is “to avoid adding […]
The war in Ukraine and associated international geopolitical crisis continues to evolve rapidly. Just this afternoon IEA members agreed to release 60 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves to mitigate spiking energy prices, and Treasury Secretary Yellen released a statement following a meeting of G7 financial leaders. The Financial Stability Oversight Council, which includes […]
The FOMC, and particularly Powell, have a difficult task this week, as well as in the weeks and months to come. It’s hard to think of another FOMC meeting before which there has been speculation both that the Fed could surprise to the very hawkish side (accelerate tapering, even end asset purchases outright and lift […]