LHMeyer/Monetary Policy AnalyticsThere were remarks by three presidents this week: Dudley, Kaplan, and Williams. Again there is evidence of the split that we have been talking about. Williams was optimistic about both growth and the return of inflation to 2%. Dudley was more cautious about growth, his assessment being that risks to economic activity are now tilting […]
Seven policymakers spoke last week on topics related to the outlook and current monetary policy: George, Kaplan, Fischer, Williams, Bullard, Mester, and Brainard. Themes and Interpretation The overriding themes were that, regardless of whether or not there is a hike in March, the policy direction is still one of gradual normalization of rates and that […]
Five policymakers spoke last week: Rosengren, Bullard, Mester, Williams, and new Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari. Themes and Interpretation The overall theme is a split among participants. There was less of a split with respect to the assessment of economic activity and labor markets than about inflation prospects, the stability of inflation expectations, and the appropriate […]
Last week was busy for FOMC communication in the form of policymakers’ speeches, interviews, and panel discussions. There were 6 speeches. The key themes were uncertainty and cautious optimism. The first was more explicit and universal than the second. The uncertainty reflects the tension between a slowing in GDP growth in Q4, tighter financial conditions, […]
This Week in Fedspeak recaps how dovish or hawkish each speech and interview was based on both our qualitative and quantitative assessments and outlines how our monetary policy call has changed. Last week was busy with seven Fed officials speaking; the chatter was more consistent with 3 hikes in 2016 than with 4. Concern about […]