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The Art of Using Macro Models

Fed’s Shift to Data Dependence Foreshadowed in 2010 Projections Bloomberg News on December 07, 2016 David Stockton, who spent 20 years at the Fed, including nine as director of research and statistics, said it’s important to understand that when economists make a forecast, they aren’t claiming to see the future, but rather declaring which version of the […]

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Tolerance Within Limits on Inflation

Fed’s Fischer Says Economy May Exceed Inflation, Job Goals Bloomberg News on November 04, 2016 “The trade-off of how much inflation there would be for modestly exceeding their employment objective looks very favorable,” said Laurence Meyer, a former Fed governor and head of a policy analysis firm that bears his name in Washington. Fischer’s remarks […]

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Relationship between Rate Divergence and Exchange Rates

Hedge Funds at Risk as Fed Dollar Focus Threatens Bull Bets Bloomberg News on September 20, 2016 “The Fed has to look at the relationship between global rate divergence and exchange rates,” said Laurence Meyer, a former Fed governor and now president of LH Meyer Inc., an analysis firm in Washington. “Whatever you think are […]

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Slack Doesn’t Matter As Much As It Once Did

Solid Hiring Without Wage Jump Tests Fed Hopes for Inflation Bloomberg News on September 02, 2016 “Slack doesn’t matter” as much as it once did, said Laurence Meyer, who as a Fed governor from 1996 to 2002 was one of central bank’s biggest proponents of the Phillips Curve, a description of the tradeoff between unemployment […]

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The Fed Has Few Guidelines to Inform Its Judgments

Fed Finds Dots Are Just Dots, Failing to Convey Forecast Doubts Bloomberg News on August 11, 2016 There are few guidelines to inform Fed officials’ “judgment about the pace at which the funds rate should rise to keep the economy at full employment and price stability,” said former Fed governor Laurence Meyer, who now runs […]

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Downside Surprises Affect the FOMC More Than Upside Surprises

Yellen Still Waiting for Overwhelming Evidence to Warrant Hike Bloomberg News on July 25, 2016 “Upside surprises affect the committee less than downside surprises,” says former Fed governor Laurence Meyer, who now runs a Washington policy analysis firm that bears his name. “There is not a chance that they are going to go at this […]