LHMeyer/Monetary Policy Analytics
Policymakers are now nearly unanimous in supporting a December hike, but the pace in 2018 remains an open question. Their comments suggested the center of the FOMC is still at three hikes in 2018, consistent with the September median projection. Williams concurred on that point, but has a lower estimate of the longer-run funds rate […]
The blackout period on policymaker remarks ended after the release of the FOMC statement on Wednesday. Kashkari commented specifically on the impact of Powell as Chairman: “I think he’s a very serious, thoughtful policymaker. So I’m not anticipating the transition from Chair Yellen to Chair Powell will lead to a big change in the […]
Source: CNBC Former Fed Governor: How Powell differs from Yellen and Bernanke Thursday, 2 Nov 2017 | 3:15 PM ET Richard Fisher, former Dallas Fed president, and Laurence Meyer, former Fed governor, discuss President Trump’s nomination of Jerome Powell to lead the Federal Reserve. Former Fed Governor: How Powell differs from Yellen and Bernanke from […]
It’s Going to Stay a Yellen Fed No Matter Who Gets the Job Bloomberg News on October 27, 2017 “The only reason Taylor is a high-rate person” in the minds of investors “is that he has a dramatically higher R-star estimate than anybody else on the committee,” said former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer, who doesn’t […]
The market is eagerly awaiting the President’s decision on Fed Chair. We wrote about the White House’s criteria and our assessment. (See Checking the Boxes: The White House’s Criteria for Fed Chair.) Policymakers’ Comments Low inflation was cited as a reason to let labor market improvement continue. Williams said: “A couple more years of roughly 4 […]
Taylor’s Walk on Supply Side May Leave Him More Dove Than Yellen Bloomberg News on Oct 24, 2017 If Trump appoints a chairman sympathetic to the notion that the economy can expand at a 3 percent clip, “that is going to lead to policy decisions that will lean in the direction of allowing growth to […]
The usual split among policymakers concerning a December hike remained. This weekend, Yellen declared that the FOMC continues “to expect that the ongoing strength of the economy will warrant gradual increases in that rate to sustain a healthy labor market and stabilize inflation around our 2 percent longer-run objective.” Although she acknowledged that recent inflation […]
A number of policymakers continued to prefer a rate hike in December. The key argument among those supporting a hike was the need to preempt the risk of overheating and a subsequent need for more-rapid tightening. For instance, Rosengren called for “prudent risk management” and warned, “failing to respond to very tight labor markets with […]
Central Banks Try to Avoid Buzz Kill as They Pull Punchbowl Away Bloomberg News on October 9, 2017 “It feels like the global economy is in something close to a synchronous upturn” for the first time in years, said David Stockton.
We saw Yellen’s speech last week as consistent with our (close) call that the FOMC will raise rates in December (See Message from Yellen: Steady Hand, But Alert to Inflation Developments). Her remarks indicated that there is a solid consensus on the FOMC that the recent slowing in core PCE inflation is due principally to transitory […]