LHMeyer/Monetary Policy AnalyticsBlackout interrupted the flow of speeches and interviews by Fed policymakers, though two squeezed a speech or interview in before the blackout began on Tuesday. Still, the limited number of talks and interviews repeated common themes for policymakers: policy adjustments should be “cautious and patient” (Dudley), but policymakers should, when it’s appropriate, resume normalization at […]
For a given period, there tend to be certain phrases that appear in every speech: Last week, the phrases were “data dependent” and “gradual.” Policymakers can view the same data differently, which makes disagree on how gradual they believe appropriate policy should be. In most cases, speeches last week repeated earlier themes. So we are […]
We view the speeches and interviews last week as consistent with the March dots: two or more hikes this year, realistically two or three, centered on two. There was a continuing emphasis that rate hikes would be cautious and gradual. Rosengren said that futures prices implied a path of rate hikes that was too few […]
The themes in last week’s speeches were an apparent contrast between Yellen and almost everyone else who has spoken since the March meeting; the focus on data dependency; and the emphasis on a very slow pace of normalization. Yellen’s talk was very dovish, as she essentially repeated the dovish tone of the March statement, macro […]
Themes The overarching theme from FOMC participants’ communications last week is that a number of participants who supported a pause in March saw that decision as a close call. And with the fears of January and February receding, they see a strong argument for continuing the process of tightening. That led this group, all of […]
Is Bullard changing sides again? Before the FOMC meeting, he indicated that he could not support a further rise in the funds rate because of the continued decline in market-based measures of long-term inflation expectations. In his first remarks after the meeting, though focused on a theoretical discussion of neo-Fisherian concepts, the emphasis returned to […]
There were remarks by three presidents this week: Dudley, Kaplan, and Williams. Again there is evidence of the split that we have been talking about. Williams was optimistic about both growth and the return of inflation to 2%. Dudley was more cautious about growth, his assessment being that risks to economic activity are now tilting […]
Seven policymakers spoke last week on topics related to the outlook and current monetary policy: George, Kaplan, Fischer, Williams, Bullard, Mester, and Brainard. Themes and Interpretation The overriding themes were that, regardless of whether or not there is a hike in March, the policy direction is still one of gradual normalization of rates and that […]
Five policymakers spoke last week: Rosengren, Bullard, Mester, Williams, and new Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari. Themes and Interpretation The overall theme is a split among participants. There was less of a split with respect to the assessment of economic activity and labor markets than about inflation prospects, the stability of inflation expectations, and the appropriate […]
Last week was busy for FOMC communication in the form of policymakers’ speeches, interviews, and panel discussions. There were 6 speeches. The key themes were uncertainty and cautious optimism. The first was more explicit and universal than the second. The uncertainty reflects the tension between a slowing in GDP growth in Q4, tighter financial conditions, […]